煙草在線據(jù)便利店新聞報(bào)道編譯　　同歷史同期的第三季度相比，對(duì)煙草零售商的最近一項(xiàng)調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn)，近70%的受訪者表示與第二季度相比，第三季度的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)更具競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。

　　富國(guó)證券有限責(zé)任公司的煙草零售調(diào)查，列舉了競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力不斷增加的若干因素：更高的天然氣價(jià)格、轉(zhuǎn)向毒品的渠道和一元店、生產(chǎn)定價(jià)計(jì)劃，以及新產(chǎn)品推出。

　　據(jù)富國(guó)銀行證券董事負(fù)責(zé)飲料、煙草和消費(fèi)者研究的總經(jīng)理邦尼·赫爾佐格稱，總而言之，第三季度報(bào)告的銷量增長(zhǎng)可能高于歷史趨勢(shì)。她指出，在推出幾個(gè)新產(chǎn)品之前，庫(kù)存增加了，其他庫(kù)存波動(dòng)的情況包括：在6月中旬價(jià)格上漲后庫(kù)存的下降，以及2011年第三季度行業(yè)發(fā)貨量下降6.5%，使2012年第三季度的對(duì)比情況很輕松。“我們預(yù)計(jì)報(bào)告后的行業(yè)銷量下降2%（好于3.5%左右的歷史下降幅度），”她說(shuō)。

　　盡管競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的環(huán)境越來(lái)越激烈，但是富國(guó)銀行證券的大多數(shù)分析師預(yù)期卷煙價(jià)格在12月小幅上升。赫爾佐格說(shuō)，菲莫美國(guó)公司有望領(lǐng)導(dǎo)價(jià)格變動(dòng)，估計(jì)每包價(jià)格將提高7美分。

　　至于具體的品牌，赫爾佐格說(shuō)，萬(wàn)寶路可能定位于未來(lái)份額的增長(zhǎng)。她補(bǔ)充道，此外，新港薄荷煙的銷量在增加，但是略高促銷費(fèi)用的增速在放緩，駱駝的銷量趨勢(shì)使促銷放緩。

　　在電子卷煙方面，富國(guó)銀行證券發(fā)現(xiàn)，更多的零售商接受電子煙，并給它們分配更多的空間。赫爾佐格指出，這個(gè)消息并不令人驚訝，因?yàn)榱闶凵淘陔娮訜熒汐@得的毛利率比傳統(tǒng)卷煙的利潤(rùn)率高出25%。“在接下來(lái)的10年里，我們繼續(xù)預(yù)計(jì)電子卷煙的消費(fèi)將超過(guò)傳統(tǒng)卷煙，”她補(bǔ)充道。

　　此外，由于灰熊品牌帶動(dòng)大規(guī)模的增長(zhǎng)，無(wú)煙類別仍面臨強(qiáng)勁的增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)。赫爾佐格補(bǔ)充道，盡管從9月開始，哥本哈根和干杯的購(gòu)買量下降，但是促銷已略微加速。

US: Cigarette Competitiveness Ticked Up in Q3, Retailers Say

　　With the third quarter now in the history books, a recent survey of tobacco retailers found that almost 70 percent of respondents stated the competitive environment was more competitive during the quarter compared to the second quarter.

　　Wells Fargo Securities LLC's tobacco retail survey cited several factors for the increased competitiveness: higher gas prices, channel shift to drug and dollar stores, manufacturing pricing programs, and new product introductions.

　　And when all is said and done, third quarter reported cigarette volume growth will likely be above historical trends, according to Bonnie Herzog, managing director of beverage, tobacco and consumer research at Wells Fargo Securities. She pointed to inventory build ahead of several new product introductions; and other inventory fluctuations including de-loading post the mid-June price increases and third quarter 2011's industry shipment volume decline of 6.5 percent which provides the third quarter 2012 with an easy comp. "We expect reported industry volume to be down -2 percent (better than historical declines of about 3.5 percent)," she said.

　　Despite the increased competitive environment, the majority of Wells Fargo Securities' contacts expect cigarette prices to tick up in December. Philip Morris USA is expected to lead the price moves, with estimates putting the increase at 7 cents per pack, Herzog said.

　　As for specific brands, Herzog said that Marlboro is likely positioned for future share gains. In addition, Newport Menthol volume is up, but decelerating on slightly higher promos; and Camel volume trends are lukewarm on heightened promos, she added.

　　On the electronic cigarette front, Wells Fargo Securities found that more retailers are accepting e-cigarettes and allocating more space. The news is not surprising, Herzog notes, since retailer gross margins on the e-cigarettes are 25 percent higher than traditional cigarette margins. "We continue to expect consumption of e-cigs will surpass traditional cigs in the next decade," she added.

　　Furthermore, the smokeless category is still experiencing robust growth trends with Grizzly driving the bulk of growth. Promos have accelerated slightly, although reduced buydown rates on Copenhagen and Skoal started in September, Herzog added. Enditem