煙草在線據《商務鏡報》報道編譯　　菲律賓的聯合英美煙草公司（AAATC）說，如果獲得馬拉卡南宮支持的具有爭議的“罪惡稅”改革法案被簽署成為法律的話，煙草的市場銷量將會下降50%，與此同時，卷煙黑市則將一片繁榮。

　　聯合英美煙草公司的副總裁Blake Dy說，如果眾議院5727號法案被簽署成為法律，則阿基諾政府應該警惕黑市統治煙草業的可能性。

　　Dy反問道：“我們為什么老是認為這項法案會對煙農有利？我們為什么不考慮提高煙稅帶來的最嚴重的影響？”他甚至激烈地抨擊低估提稅對卷煙造成的可能影響的懷疑者們。

　　據Dy說，體現在提案中的即將對卷煙征收的重稅，將會使消費者別無選擇，只能轉向更便宜的走私卷煙。

　　Dy的公司制造低價品牌的卷煙。他說：“最糟糕的情況會是：合法卷煙市場將下降50%，市場銷量減少的最好情況也要下降26%。此外，走私和假冒產品將代替合法卷煙的位置。”

　　他說，由于煙稅提得這么高，他的公司將會關門，這在世界上無論哪個地方都未曾發生過。

　　贊成提高煙稅的人稱，提稅的目標是要遏制菲律賓吸煙人口的增加。但Blake Dy反對說，征收太高的煙稅并不意味著煙草消費會下降。他說，消費者只會去尋找更便宜的產品。

　　Dy問道：“假冒卷煙的制造商正在等待這次大提稅能夠讓他們的機器重新運轉起來。除了非法這一特點之外，沒有人知道假冒、走私或非法卷煙里含有什么。我們知道這些產品的成分嗎？那就是你們所說的有健康意識？”

　　菲律賓煙草每年共計生產卷煙1000億支。他說，由于在煙稅史無前例地提高708%的刺激下，卷煙黑市繁榮發展，假冒產品也會涌現，煙農們將直接受到影響。

　　Dy說，因走私和假冒而使得卷煙市場銷量出現下降50%的最糟糕情況下，將有500億支合法卷煙被排擠出市場，影響42000名煙農，他們生產4000萬公斤煙葉，用于制造500億支卷煙。

　　而在最好的情況下，市場銷量下降26%，合法的卷煙產量將不足260億支，從而給22000名煙農造成影響。

Philippines: Group says 'sin' tax to lower tobacco production by 50%

　　THE Associated Anglo American Tobacco Corp. (AAATC) said the market volume of tobacco would fall by as much as 50 percent while there will be a thriving cigarette black market if the controversial Malaca?ang-backed "sin-tax" reform bill is signed into law.

　　Blake Dy, AAATC vice president, said the Aquino administration should be wary of the potential of the black market ruling over the tobacco industry should House Bill 5727 become a law.

　　"Why do we keep on thinking that this bill will be good for the farmers? Why aren't we thinking about the worst effects of this tax hike?" asked Dy even as he slammed at skeptics who downplay the possible impact of the tax hike on cigarettes.

　　According to Dy, the high tax to be charged on cigarettes, as embodied in the proposed law, will give consumers no option but to shift to the cheaper smuggled cigarettes.

　　"The worst case would be that the legitimate cigarette market will go down by 50 percent while the best scenario on market reduction is 26 percent. Further, smuggling and counterfeits will take the place of the legal cigarettes," said Dy, whose company manufactures the low-priced brands.

　　He said his company would close shop with such an exorbitant tax hike, which has never happened anywhere in the world.

　　Proponents of the tobacco-tax hike claim that the objective is to curb the increasing number of smokers in the country. But Dy countered that imposing a very high tax does not mean that consumption would also decline. He said consumers would only look for cheaper products.

　　"Manufacturers of fake cigarettes are just waiting for this excessive-tax hike to be able to have their machines get going again. Aside from its illegality, nobody would know what that fake, smuggled or counterfeit stick contains. Are we sure about the contents of these products? Is that what you call being health conscious?" Dy asked.

　　A total of 100 billion cigarette sticks are produced by the tobacco industry annually. With a flourishing cigarette black market fueled by an unprecedented tobacco-tax hike of 708 percent, counterfeits will emerge and farmers are directly affected, he said.

　　Dy said under a 50-percent worst-case scenario brought about by smuggling and counterfeits, 50 billion sticks of legal cigarettes will be edged out of the market and would affect 42,000 farmers who produce 40 million kilos of tobacco leaf, the required kilos of leaf to manufacture 50 billion sticks.

　　At a best-case scenario of a 26-percent market drop, volume produced would be less 26 billion legal sticks and would affect 22,000 farmers.