煙草在線據Daily Markets報道編譯　　英國煙草產品制造業的收入在過去5年內每年都下降。在過去的幾十年中，吸煙率長期下降，主要原因是人們擔心吸煙會引起健康問題。現在，僅有21%的人口吸煙。雖然煙草產品的價格相對穩定，但也有所上漲，因此也導致吸煙率的下降。據市場調查公司IBISWorld行業分析師史蒂文·康奈爾（Steven Connell）稱，“價格上漲也致使人們從購買優質品牌轉向購買經濟品牌”。例如，過濾嘴香煙的購買量減小了，對自卷煙的需求量增長了。

　　政府旨在降低吸煙率的措施，圍繞與健康有關的吸煙危害性進行了負面報道，降低了吸煙率。在過去5年中，實施的控煙規定包括把購買卷煙的最低年齡從16歲提高到18歲，在卷煙包裝上增加圖片健康警語等。未來五年內，預計行業收入每年將下降3.3%，降至88億英鎊。該收入包括占行業收入大約74%的消費稅。2012-13年度的行業收入預計下跌5.2%。IBISWorld預測，未來五年內，煙草行業的收入將會繼續下降，預計煙草公司的數量在2017-18年度將會減少到只有10家。康奈爾繼續說道，“卷煙消費將會繼續保持下降趨勢，而煙草規定將越來越多，煙草稅也將繼續上漲。”預計，煙草行業的員工數量每年將會下降3.9%。因此，在截至2017-18的未來五年內，煙草行業收入的將會下降。

　　煙草產品制造行業的市場份額非常集中，在2008年，4家最大的制造商總計約占整個市場份額的97%。主要煙草公司包括帝國煙草、日本煙草以及英美煙草等。

　　評論：

　　人們通常把煙草業歸入“夕陽產業”或“衰退產業”，主要的原因是：人們的健康意識增強，以及各國政府的控煙力度加大。一般來說，判斷一個產業是否屬于“衰退產業”，應該有兩個基本標準：一是，市場上對該產業的需求是否在不斷減弱，如果對該產業的需求仍然處于增長狀態，該產業就不會衰退下去。二是，該產業是否已經過了成熟期，是否有替代產業出現，如果沒有替代產業的出現，一個發展成熟的產業也不會真正衰退下去。

　　對于煙草業，我們可以看到，在英、美等發達國家市場，煙草產品的產銷量都在下降，而在亞洲、非洲的一些新興市場，煙草市場的銷量卻呈增長趨勢，并且抵消了成熟市場的銷量下降。而且煙草行業一直沒有可靠的替代品，畢竟煙草是一種獨特的產品，吸煙所帶來的愉悅感也很難被其他產品替代。雖然電子卷煙發展勢頭迅猛，但短期內仍然不會對傳統卷煙構成威脅。因此，從全球來看，雖然市場環境非常具有挑戰性，但煙草業還遠未進入衰退期。

Tobacco Product Manufacturing In The UK Industry Market Research Report Now Updated

　　Tobacco Product Manufacturing industry revenue declined in each of the past five years. There has been a long-term decline in smoking rates over the past few decades, mainly due to health concerns. Now only 21% of the population smokes. Although the price of tobacco products is relatively static, there have been some rises, which have also contributed towards the decline in smoking rates. According to IBISWorld industry analyst Steven Connell, "price rises have also led to a shift away from premium brands towards economy brands". For instance, demand for roll-your-own cigarettes has increased at the expense of filter cigarettes.

　　Government measures designed to reduce smoking rates have added to the negative press surrounding health-related smoking risks and contributed to declining smoking rates. Examples of regulations introduced over the past five years include an increase of the minimum age of purchase from 16 to 18 and the inclusion of pictorial health warnings on tobacco packages. Industry revenue is expected to fall 3.3% per annum over the five years through 2012-13 to reach ￡8.8 billion. This figure includes excise tax, which accounts for approximately 74% of industry revenue. Industry revenue is expected to decline 5.2% in 2012-13. IBISWorld expects the industry will continue to decline over the next five years, with the number of companies operating in the industry expected to fall to just 10 in 2017-18. Connell adds, "cigarette consumption is expected to continue its downward trend, while regulation and taxes on tobacco increase". Employment is expected to decline an annualised 3.9%. Consequently industry revenue is expected to decline over the next five years to 2017-18.

　　The market share concentration in the Tobacco Product Manufacturing industry is very high with the top 4 manufacturers accounting for approximately 97% of the market in 2008. Major companies include Imperial Tobacco, Japan Tobacco and British American Tobacco. Enditem