煙草在線據印尼投資報道編譯　　在印尼政府放棄提高卷煙消費稅的計劃之后，印尼的卷煙產量預計在2014年將增長到3550億至3600億支。不過，如果要實現這個目標，印尼的宏觀經濟環境——尤其是通貨膨脹率——保持穩定也是很重要的。今年，印尼的卷煙產量預計將達到3400億支。印尼擁有世界上最大的卷煙市場之一。

　　然而，盡管2014年卷煙消費稅不上漲，明年部分地區的適用于卷煙價格的稅率仍會上漲10%。印尼的煙草業顯示，10%的稅率上漲是適度的，將不會影響煙草業的發展。在這種情況下，2014年全年的卷煙產量和消費量都將取得增長。不過，在2015年，卷煙消費稅和稅率將會上漲（合計18%），將會抑制煙草業的增長。

　　外國公司仍然有興趣投資或發展印尼煙草業有很多原因。首先，印尼人口眾多，超過2.4億人。大約三分之二的印尼男性吸煙，但該國的一個特色是，只有5%的少數女性吸煙。其次，由于原材料和其它生產資料大多可以在印尼當地找到，煙草的生產成本比較低（盡管2012年的生產成本有所上漲），而且在全球經濟衰退的環境下有反彈趨勢。因此，國內消費穩定增長，而卷煙出口量卻在下滑。2009年，印尼的卷煙出口額達到5億美元，但出口額一直呈下降趨勢，尤其是自美國限制進口丁香煙以來。丁香煙是一種用丁香制成的卷煙，含有70%的煙草及30%的丁香粉、丁香油和其它附加劑。印尼以生產丁香煙而聞名，與白色卷煙相比，印尼約85%的吸煙者更喜歡丁香煙。

　　印尼最大的煙草公司有鹽倉集團、三寶麟集團和奔都爾國際投資公司。鹽倉集團和三寶麟集團是印尼市值最大的兩家公司。

Indonesian Tobacco Industry Expected to Continue its Growth in 2014

　　After the Indonesian government abandoned the idea to increase excises on cigarettes, the production of cigarettes in Indonesia is expected to increase to between 355 and 360 billion cigarettes in 2014. However, in order to meet that target, it is also important that the country's macroeconomy - particularly the inflation rate - remains stable. This year, Indonesian cigarette production is expected to reach 340 billion cigarettes. Indonesia has one of the world's largest markets for cigarettes.

　　However, despite the absence of an increase in excises in 2014, there will still be a 10 percent (regional) tax increase applied to prices of cigarettes next year. According to Indonesia's tobacco industry, this 10 percent increase is moderate and will not hurt expansion of the industry. As such, the production and consumption of cigarettes will be able to grow throughout 2014. In 2015, however, there may be an increase in excises and tax (amounting to 18 percent in total), which can curb the industry's growth.

　　There are a number of reasons why foreign companies remain interested to invest or expand in Indonesia's tobacco industry. Firstly, Indonesia has a vast population numbering over 240 million people. About two-third of all Indonesian men smoke cigarettes, while a characteristic of the country is that - with 5 percent only - few females smoke. Secondly, as raw materials and other production means are mostly sourced domestically, tobacco has low production costs (although these have grown in 2012) and has been resilient to the global economic downturn. Therefore, domestic consumption grew steadily, while the export of cigarettes has been in decline. In 2009, exports of Indonesian cigarettes were valued at USD $500 million, but this figure has been on a declining trend, particularly since the USA limited the import of kretek cigarettes. Kretek are cloth cigarettes that consist of tobacco (70 percent) and ground cloves, clove oil and other additives (30 percent). Indonesia is famous for its kretek production and about 85 percent of all smokers in Indonesia prefer kretek cigarettes to white cigarettes.

　　The largest tobacco companies in Indonesia are Gudang Garam, HM Sampoerna and Bentoel Internasional Investama. Gudang Garam and HM Sampoerna are among the Indonesian companies with the largest market capitalization in Indonesia. Enditem